In January 2026, unprecedented military tensions escalated between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, placing the West Asian region at one of its most precarious junctures in recent years. Amid this turmoil, the role of neighboring countries like Jordan as potential battlegrounds has garnered significant attention from analysts.
While Jordanian officials have publicly stated that their country will not be the starting point for any military action against Iran, the extensive deployment of American fighter jets and advanced weaponry within its borders raises serious questions about its proclaimed neutrality.
Jordan’s current situation amidst regional tensions is not coincidental. Historically recognized as a strategic ally of the U.S., Jordan receives substantial military and economic aid from Washington annually. Its geographical positioning makes it an ideal base for American forces, given its proximity to the borders of Iraq, Syria, and Israel, enabling rapid responses to regional developments.Jordan has clearly articulated its official stance in recent weeks. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi emphasized in a phone call with Iranian counterpart Seyyed Abbas Araghchi that Jordan will not allow its territory or airspace to be used for any military actions against Iran. This statement aims to calm Tehran and mitigate tensions.
However, this declaration of neutrality contrasts sharply with the on-ground realities. Numerous reports from regional and international media indicate a significant increase in U.S. military presence in Jordan as of January 2026. Satellite imagery and field reports reveal the deployment of dozens of advanced F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets and refueling aircraft at bases like Muwaffaq Salti in eastern Jordan.
These movements, described as part of a comprehensive U.S. military posture in West Asia, clearly position Jordan as a potential launchpad for offensive operations. The contradiction between rhetoric and action raises serious questions about the depth of Amman’s cooperation with Washington in a possible war scenario.From Tehran’s perspective, the presence of American forces in its western neighbor poses a direct security threat, regardless of Jordan’s official position. Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that any attack from the territory of any neighboring country would directly involve that country. This warning transcends mere diplomatic threats; Iranian security and defense media have explicitly mentioned targeting specific bases in Jordan should conflict arise.
For instance, a recent report identified the Muwaffaq Al-Azraq base in Jordan as a potential target for Iranian ballistic missiles. These reports reflect the views of Iranian security circles, indicating that Iran’s response to any attack will not be limited to American or Israeli positions, and the host country will also pay a heavy price. The message is clear: practical cooperation with the enemy, despite claims of neutrality, will incur significant costs.Currently, the Jordanian government faces a complex internal and regional equation. On one hand, Washington’s pressure for full cooperation may intensify. On the other hand, the Iranian threat is real and tangible. A full-scale conflict would not only devastate Jordan’s critical infrastructure but could also lead to internal instability in a country hosting a large Palestinian population and is economically vulnerable. Analysts warn that the escalation of a regional war could quickly result in a humanitarian disaster and widespread instability in the international system.Jordan’s government has directly intercepted Iranian missiles targeting occupied territories, acting to defend the Israeli regime, which has led to significant embarrassment and ridicule of its leaders in global public opinion concerning their false positions on defending Palestine and hypocritical criticisms of the Israeli regime, as they have positioned themselves as a shield for the Israeli regime at critical times.Iran’s signal to Arab capitals in the region indicates that a regional war is imminent. Last week, the Commander-in-Chief warned that any military action against Iran would lead to a regional conflict, a warning that resonated immediately in the region, occupied territories, and Western countries. This stark warning made it clear for Washington, Tel Aviv, and other Arab capitals: creating insecurity for Iran will have severe military, security, and economic repercussions for all parties involved, particularly the U.S. and the Israeli regime.Additionally, according to official reports, a senior Iranian official conveyed a clear message through diplomatic channels to regional neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. The content of this message leaves no room for diplomatic ambiguity: any country that allows its land or airspace to be used for an aggressive act against Iran will be considered a legitimate target by Iranian armed forces.
This official emphasized, “Our response will not be limited to the source of the attack; it will also encompass any regional host facilitating such intervention.” This stance has escalated Iran’s deterrence strategy to a new level.Iran not only threatens reciprocal action in the event of an attack but explicitly includes U.S. bases in neighboring countries and critical centers in Arab nations in its target list, holding them accountable for the consequences of any collaboration with the U.S. and the Israeli regime. This approach challenges the traditional game of proxy warfare and directly transfers the risk of conflict to Arab capitals.Currently, all countries in the region are fearful of the repercussions of new American and Israeli adventures. Following Tehran’s signals to Arab nations regarding the serious and widespread consequences of any aggression against Iranian territory by the Israeli regime and the U.S., a wave of fear has swept through the region, particularly among Gulf states.Arab countries are acutely concerned about the uncontrollable direct and indirect effects of a war initiated by the U.S. and the Israeli regime against Iran. These nations view such military intervention as a “high-stakes gamble” that could destabilize the entire region for years to come and result in irreparable consequences for them.Tehran’s recent warning has clearly conveyed that no country in the region can ignite the flames of war against its neighbor while maintaining its own security. The era when Arab nations could benefit from an alliance with the West and the Israeli regime against Iran’s vital interests without facing the costs of direct confrontation has officially ended. Their choice between cooperating with an aggressive foreign agenda or adhering to regional stability will be pivotal.
