Recent movements by the Israeli regime reflect a continuation of its long-standing aggressive policies. The critical question arises: has Benjamin Netanyahu devised a new strategy to seriously escalate the conflict and engage in a full-scale war in Lebanon?<\/p>\n
Israel has faced significant defeats in Lebanon multiple times. From the 33-day war in 2006, which Israeli officials acknowledged as a ‘strategic failure,’ to recent clashes where Hezbollah has not only maintained its ground but has also dramatically enhanced its missile capabilities and precision strikes. For Netanyahu’s cabinet, the prospect of repeating such failures is unbearable. If he were to replicate past scenarios, experiencing defeat not on Lebanese soil but deep within occupied territories, the repercussions would extend far beyond a mere military setback, effectively nullifying all of Donald Trump’s assertions.In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly declared, with great fanfare, that ‘I have established a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon,’ ‘The war is over,’ and ‘No one dares to shoot anymore.’ If Netanyahu ignites the flames of war now, the foremost political obstacle he faces is precisely these public promises from Trump. Such an action would not only humiliate the U.S. President before the world and his voter base but would also drive a wedge between Washington and Israel\u2014a situation Netanyahu cannot afford given his current international isolation.<\/p>\n
But why would a Prime Minister who has led his society into economic despair, deep social divides, and a crisis of trust take such a dangerous gamble? The answer is simple: the peak of power madness, coupled with a desperate need to cling to authority. Netanyahu understands that the day the war ends, his corruption trials will resume, street protests will reignite, and his fragile coalition will collapse. The only thing keeping him in power is this ‘perpetual state of emergency.’ Thus, a limited and controlled escalation of conflict is not merely a strategic choice for him but a personal political necessity.<\/p>\n
However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Historically, Israel has adhered to a model of ‘rapid attack, limited strike, and retreat’ and has never dared to engage in a large-scale ground war in Lebanon. The reasons are clear: entering a real war would mean evacuating another third of the occupied northern territories, displacing over 100,000 more settlers, imposing hundreds of billions in costs on an already bankrupt budget, and igniting a housing crisis, unemployment, and reverse migration that has already brought Israeli society to the brink of social collapse. Netanyahu knows this, his advisors know this, and even his American supporters are aware.For this reason it seems unlikely that he would cross the red line of ‘total war.’ He merely aims to keep tensions high enough that no one dares to pursue his legal cases suppressing protests while portraying himself as ‘Israel’s sole savior.’ This is the entirety of his game: not a decisive victory but the continuation of crisis. Ultimately every step Netanyahu takes towards genuine war escalation brings him closer to his own demise and the discrediting of his allies. History has shown that anyone who ventures into this quagmire emerges with heavier defeats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Every step Netanyahu takes towards escalating the war brings him closer to his own downfall and undermines his allies’ credibility. History has shown that anyone who steps into the quagmire of Lebanon emerges with heavier defeats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":581,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[64],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-palestine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/581"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20592\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ghodsnama.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}