Ahead of the crucial negotiations set for Thursday in Geneva, Israeli officials have voiced significant apprehensions regarding President Donald Trump’s potential acceptance of an unfavorable deal with Iran. They fear that such an agreement could force Israel to confront dire repercussions without support.
Tensions have escalated with the arrival of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier in the region. Israeli diplomats have indicated to sources that concerns in Jerusalem are mounting, particularly that Trump might authorize a limited strike against Iran to compel concessions on its nuclear program, paving the way for a partial agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
Israeli officials worry that such a deal would not address Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal or its backing of militant groups, ultimately leaving Israel to tackle these significant security threats on its own.Opposition to a limited strike is growing among Israeli diplomats, who draw parallels between the current situation and Trump’s previous agreement with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. That deal halted bombings for months due to the group’s commitment to cease attacks on Red Sea vessels, yet did not guarantee an end to assaults on Israeli targets. They fear that, similar to Yemen, Trump may lose interest mid-campaign regarding Iran.
An anonymous senior Israeli diplomat shared concerns with sources, stating, “The worst-case scenario is a weak agreement that grants Iran access to substantial funds to sustain its regime,” referring to the potential lifting of U.S. sanctions. They added, “Another equally troubling option is a limited or symbolic military operation that does not topple the regime but provokes Iranian retaliation, meaning we would bear the cost of missile responses without achieving anything in return.”Some in Jerusalem consider an alternative proposal: for the U.S. to refrain from military action for now while intensifying sanctions against Iran. One official remarked, “The situation in Iran is desperate. It requires patience and wisdom.”
Following a meeting with Trump at the White House on February 11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed confidence that he had convinced the President of the importance of curbing Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, especially since Iran has rebuilt much of the arsenal that Israel destroyed during last June’s conflict.
The diplomat noted, “Possessing hundreds, if not thousands, of precise ballistic missiles poses a strategic threat akin to a nuclear bomb. The question remains whether the President still aligns with Netanyahu’s views.”Signs of a potential limited U.S. strike are emerging, including the presence of several large American refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport and Washington’s directive to evacuate non-essential embassy staff in Beirut.
Netanyahu’s speech in the Knesset echoed these tensions: “I made it clear to [Iran] that if they make perhaps the gravest mistake in their history by attacking Israel, we will respond with a force they cannot even imagine.”
American media outlets reported that General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Trump about the risks of attacking Iran, including the potential for the U.S. to become embroiled in a prolonged conflict with possible human casualties.An anonymous senior Israeli security source remarked, “It’s natural to have differing opinions. We also disagree on the best way to deal with Iran. We hope the President makes the right decision.”
However, they added, “Iran is vulnerable; we must not squander this historic opportunity.”
Israeli military chief, Major General Eyal Zamir, is in close contact with Milley, having met him earlier this month in Washington. Reports indicate that unlike Milley, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM who supports military action, has not participated in consultations with the President since January.
A former senior Israeli officer commented that it is unsurprising for the CENTCOM commander to be more optimistic about military action against Iran than the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs: “CENTCOM is on the ground and familiar with the Iranian narrative, while the Chairman oversees all matters and naturally exhibits caution.”Israel is now striving to convince American officials that the risks of military action are low despite warnings from Milley and others. An anonymous senior Israeli intelligence source stated “Iran’s infrastructure is highly vulnerable and its oil industry is susceptible to attacks.”
They concluded “There is no reason to fear their threats.”
