As tensions escalate with the arrival of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier in the region, Israeli diplomatic officials have voiced growing concerns to the media. They fear that Trump might issue orders for a limited strike on Iran, pressuring the country to concede on its nuclear program and paving the way for a partial agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
Israeli officials are particularly worried that such an agreement might not address Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal or its support for militant groups, ultimately forcing Israel to confront these significant security threats alone.Opposition to a limited strike is mounting among Israeli diplomats, who draw parallels between the current situation and last year’s agreement between Trump and Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen. This prior agreement halted bombardments due to the group’s commitment to cease attacks on Red Sea vessels, yet it failed to secure any commitments to stop assaults on Israeli targets. They fear that, similar to Yemen, Trump’s interest may wane mid-campaign, leading to unfavorable outcomes for Iran.
An anonymous senior Israeli diplomatic source shared with the media, “The worst-case scenario is a weak agreement that grants the Iranian regime access to substantial funds to survive.” This was in reference to the potential lifting of U.S. sanctions. The source added, “Another equally bad option is a limited or symbolic military operation that does not topple the regime but invites Iranian retaliation, meaning we would bear the cost of their missile responses without any gains.”Some in Jerusalem are advocating for a different approach: urging the U.S. to refrain from military action for now, intensify sanctions against Iran, and encourage a significant segment of domestic opposition seeking to overthrow the regime to continue their protests. One official stated, “The regime’s situation is desperate. This requires patience and wisdom. If pressure continues and intensifies, the regime will ultimately fall in some form.”Following a meeting with Trump at the White House on February 11, Benjamin Netanyahu felt reassured that he had convinced the President of the importance of curbing Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, especially since Iran has been rebuilding much of the arsenal destroyed by Israel in last June’s conflict.
He noted, “Having hundreds, if not thousands, of precise ballistic missiles poses a strategic threat comparable to a nuclear bomb. The question remains whether the President still agrees with Netanyahu on this matter.”Signs suggesting a possible limited U.S. strike are emerging, including several large American refueling aircraft spotted at Ben Gurion Airport and Washington’s order to evacuate non-essential personnel from the embassy in Beirut. Netanyahu’s speech in the Knesset that same day reflected the rising tensions: “I made it clear to [Iran] that if they commit what may be the gravest mistake in history and attack Israel, we will respond with a force they cannot even imagine.”Several American media outlets reported that General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Trump about the potential dangers of attacking Iran, including the risk of the U.S. becoming embroiled in a prolonged conflict and facing human casualties.
An anonymous senior Israeli security source commented, “Disagreement is natural. We also have differing views on the best way to deal with Iran. We hope the President makes the right decision.” However, he added, “The regime is vulnerable; we should not waste this historic opportunity.”Israeli military chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir is in close contact with Milley, having met him earlier this month in Washington. Reports indicate that, unlike Milley, Admiral William Cooper, the commander of CENTCOM who supports military action, has not participated in discussions with the President since January.
A former senior Israeli officer remarked that it is not surprising that the CENTCOM commander is more optimistic about military action against Iran than the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “CENTCOM is on the ground and familiar with the Iranian narrative, while the Chairman oversees all matters and naturally expresses concerns and caution.”Israel is now striving to persuade American officials that the risks of military action are low despite warnings from Milley and others. An anonymous senior Israeli intelligence source stated “Iran’s infrastructure is highly vulnerable and its oil industry is susceptible to attack.”
He added “There is no reason to fear their threats.”
